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| #1007225 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 04.Jul.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 The depression remains poorly organized, with a shrinking area of deep convection to the south of the partially exposed center. The intensity remains 30 kt pending receipt of scatterometer data this evening, perhaps generously. The cyclone should accelerate to the east-northeast over the next couple of days as it encounters stronger mid-level flow. Track guidance is tightly clustered, and no significant changes were made to the previous forecast. After tonight`s diurnal convective maximum period, the chances of the depression to strengthen are fairly low due to increasing shear and cooler waters. Thus only a slight increase in wind speed is forecast, similar to the model consensus. Extratropical transition is shown in a couple of days due to the system becoming embedded in a front and a mid-level trough. It is possible, however, that the depression will open up into a trough on Sunday, as suggested by the latest GFS model, but for now this forecast maintains continuity with the previous one. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds from the depression should start on Bermuda during the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 32.5N 66.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 34.0N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 37.0N 59.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 39.7N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 42.5N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
