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| #1007807 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 10.Jul.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay early this morning found that the storm had strengthened slightly, with maximum SFMR-observed surface winds near 45 kt. Additionally, the minimum central pressure had fallen a few mb since yesterday. Since the center of the cyclone is exposed on the southwest side of the main area of deep convection, and southwesterly shear over the system is forecast to persist, little if any additional strengthening is anticipated before landfall. Weakening should commence after the center moves inland in 12-24 hours. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest model consensus aids. Center fixes from the Air Force plane show that the storm continues moving northward at a slightly faster pace, or 360/9 kt. During the next couple of days, Fay should move between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a short-wave trough dropping into the Ohio Valley region. There has been little change to the official track forecast, which remains close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 37.4N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
