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| #1007855 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 10.Jul.2020) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS FAY`S CENTER NEARS THE JERSEY SHORE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.8N 74.5W ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Fenwick Island Delaware to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound * Southern Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 74.5 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north- northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the New Jersey coast this afternoon and evening and move inland over the mid-Atlantic and northeast United States tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today while the center remains over water. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland, and Fay is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A Weatherflow site at Lewes, Delaware, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph (86 km/h). Another Weatherflow station at Seaside Heights, New Jersey, recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. The rain may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area through tonight. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
