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| #1007875 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 10.Jul.2020) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...AND LONG ISLAND... ...FAY MAKES LANDFALL JUST NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.5N 74.3W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey, including southern Delaware Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Great Egg Inlet New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), satellite imagery indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Fay has made landfall along the coast of New Jersey about 10 miles (15 km) north-northeast of Atlantic City, near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 74.3 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northward to north- northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Fay will move near or over portions of the New Jersey coast this evening and then move inland over southeastern New York and western New England tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight, especially after the Fay moves farther inland. Fay is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Saturday morning and dissipate on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center. A Weatherflow site at Larchmont Harbor, New York, recently reported a sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a wind gust of 41 mph (67 km/h). JFK airport in New York City recently reported a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches along and near its track from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain could result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible, but widespread river flooding is not expected. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning through tonight. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two are possible late this afternoon and evening across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
