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| #1009104 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 21.Jul.2020) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 The depression remains quite small in size and its cloud pattern consists of a compact central dense overcast and some convective bands on its west side. The latest satellite intensity estimates and a recent ASCAT pass support maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward at 8 kt. The track forecast appears fairly straightforward. A strengthening deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should cause the system to accelerate some toward the west or west-northwest during the next several days. This steering pattern should take the cyclone across the eastern Caribbean Islands and into the Caribbean Sea this weekend. The models are in fairly good agreement and there is high confidence in the track forecast. The intensity forecast is much trickier. The models continue to differ on the evolution of the depression, with the statistical-dynamical models and some of the hurricane regional models showing the system becoming a hurricane within the next few days. Conversely, the global models show little change in strength and even dissipate the system as it moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea. The global models seem to indicate that a combination of the cyclone`s fast forward speed and associated shear, and dry air entrainment should prevent strengthening or lead to weakening. Given the large amount of uncertainty, only small changes were made to the previous prediction. This forecast lies a little below the consensus models giving slightly more weight to the global model solutions. It should be noted that small systems like Tropical Depression Seven are often difficult to predict as they are more likely to fluctuate in strength compared to larger cyclones. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 10.0N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 10.2N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 10.3N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 10.4N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 10.5N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 10.8N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 11.3N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 12.4N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 13.7N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
