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| #1009138 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 22.Jul.2020) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 The cyclone has become a little better organized this morning with indications of it developing convective banding features. Intensity estimates based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 30 kt and 35 kt respectively. I prefer to wait for consensus 35-kt estimates before naming the system, but it seems very likely that we will have Gonzalo over the tropical Atlantic very soon. The intensity forecast for this system is subject to more than the usual degree of uncertainty. Although the cyclone is likely to remain in an environment of fairly low shear, the influences of dry air and large-scale subsidence could inhibit strengthening in a few days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and calls for some strengthening during the next couple of days followed by a leveling off thereafter. This is below the model consensus, but above the global model predictions which eventually dissipate the cyclone. It should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. The motion continues a little north of due west or 285/10 kt. A well-defined subtropical ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the tropical cyclone during the forecast period. The official forecast, like the previous one, is for a generally westward motion at a fast forward speed over the forecast periods. This is in close agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 10.0N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 10.2N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 10.2N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 12.7N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 15.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
