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| #1009531 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 25.Jul.2020) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 On the last leg in the east semicircle of Gonzalo, the 53rd Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported numerous SFMR winds of 35 to 40 kts, with lighter winds at flight-level. The surface circulation, however, was still poorly defined, and barely closed. Based on the reconnaissance observations, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Due to the fact that Gonzalo is moving within an impeding thermodynamic environment, little change in intensity is forecast as the cyclone approaches the southern Windward Islands this afternoon. As Gonzalo moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea, lingering large-scale subsidence and the cyclone`s close proximity to the coast of Venezuela are predicted to cause the system to weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure in a couple of days which is consistent with the global model`s solution. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/15 kt. Gonzalo should gain very little latitude with time as it continues moving westward to west-northwestward within the fresh low-level tradewind flow. The official forecast is once again nudged a bit toward the south and aligns with the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus model. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to a portion of the southern Windward Islands today and tonight. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 10.1N 58.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 10.7N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 11.5N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 12.1N 69.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
