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| #1009576 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 25.Jul.2020) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 Gonzalo is looking very ragged, with a cloud field that more resembles a tropical squall than a tropical storm. If Gonzalo still has a well-defined center, it is located to the east of the primary area of deep convection and is obscured by cirrus clouds. It is possible that ASCAT data will provide more information on the status of Gonzalo later this morning. For now, the intensity is held at 35 kt based on overnight reconnaissance data, but it is possible that Gonzalo is no longer producing winds of that magnitude except in squalls not directly related to the system`s circulation. Gonzalo appears to have continued westward since the last advisory, with a somewhat uncertain forward speed estimate of 16 kt. As noted in the previous advisory, Gonzalo is not expected to gain much latitude today and should continue generally westward for the next day or so. Close proximity to land and unfavorable large-scale environmental factors should cause Gonzalo to weaken and open into a trough by late Sunday, if not sooner. No significant changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts which both remain near the multi-model consensus. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is causing gusty winds across portions of the southern Windward Islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Gonzalo is producing heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 10.5N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 11.0N 63.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 11.7N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
