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| #1010082 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:56 PM 28.Jul.2020) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 ...DISTURBANCE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 58.7W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...40 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominica * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo northward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance center has re-formed near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 58.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 25 mph (40 km/h), and this general motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or on Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight or Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high... 90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands late tonight or Wednesday morning, and spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area early Thursday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding. Rainfall is also expected in the following locations: Across the Windward Islands: 1 to 3 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
