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| #1012036 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 12.Aug.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows some changes in the convection associated with Tropical Depression Eleven, as the showers and thunderstorms are now occuring more in curved bands and less in sheared bursts. This is likely due to the southeasterly shear which has been affecting the depression finally letting up. However, this change has not caused the satellite intensity estimates to change significantly since the last advisory, so the initial intensity is again 30 kt. The initial motion remains a little north of due west, or 280/13 kt. There is almost no change to the forecast philosophy and little change to the forecast track since the last advisory. A westward motion is expected to continue for another 6-12 h due to easterly flow on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the cyclone. After that, the global models forecast a slight weakness to develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and continue that motion through 96 h. Between 96-120 h, the western end of the ridge is forecast to weaken more, which should cause a turn toward the northwest. The new NHC forecast track remains just to the left of the various consensus models. The cyclone should be in an environment of light to moderate shear through the next 48 h or so. The intensity forecast again calls for a peak intensity of 50 kt during this time, which is at the high end of the intensity guidance. After 60 h, the cyclone is expected to encounter moderate to strong southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic. This should cause at least steady weakening, and several of the global models continue to forecast the cyclone to degenerate to a tropical wave before 120 h. The new intensity forecast again expects the system to last longer than the global models, but still shows weakening due to the shear after 72 h. The new forecast has only minor changes from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 12.7N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 13.0N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 14.0N 49.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 15.2N 52.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 16.6N 54.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 17.8N 57.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 19.1N 59.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 21.5N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 24.5N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
