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| #1012151 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 13.Aug.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 There has been little change in the organization of Josephine since the last advisory. The low-level center is located near the southern edge of the main convective mass, and there is some weak outer banding in the northern semicircle. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus. Some arc clouds west of the main convective mass suggest that dry air is entraining into the system. However, where this dry air is coming from is not readily apparent in satellite imagery or model analyses. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 295/14 kt. Josephine should continue this motion for the next 3-4 days as it moves toward a weakness in the western portion of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The global models forecast the western end of the ridge to weaken even more by the end of the forecast period, which should cause the cyclone, or what is left of it by that time, to turn northwestward. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track lies a little to the right of the previous track trough 48 h and close to the previous track thereafter. On the forecast track, Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has gone by. Josephine has about 36 h to strengthen before it encounters significant southwesterly shear. The new intensity forecast is unchanged in showing the storm strengthening to a peak intensity of 50 kt in 24-36 h. After that, some minor tweaks were made to the intensity during the expected shear-induced weakening. The new forecast intensity follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 14.5N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.5N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.9N 55.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 18.3N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 19.6N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 20.9N 62.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 22.0N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 25.0N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 28.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
