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| #1012266 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 14.Aug.2020) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Earlier this afternoon, one-minute visible satellite imagery clearly showed that an area of low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. had developed a well defined center. Banding convection wraps from the northeast to the southeast quadrant of the cyclone, and a combination of surface obs, ship reports, and buoy data all indicate that the system is not frontal. Although its organization is limited by strong southwesterly upper-level winds, the convection appears to be sufficiently well organized to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds were between 30 and 35 kt, so the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, assuming some slight undersampling may have occurred. Kyle is the earliest 11th named storm on record for the Atlantic basin. The previous record was Katrina, which became a tropical storm on August 24, 2005. Kyle is moving quickly east-northeastward along the northern portion of the Gulf Stream, and its future as a tropical cyclone is likely tied to how long it remains over those warm waters. A mid-latitude trough will continue to steer the system generally east-northeastward for the next few days, with some increase in forward speed. This will cause the storm to move quickly northeastward away from the U.S. coast and well south of the Canadian Maritimes. As long as the tropical cyclone remains over warm waters, some strengthening is possible, and this is reflected in all of the intensity guidance. That said, strong upper-level winds will likely keep the system sufficiently sheared to prevent significant tropical strengthening. Extratropical transition is forecast to begin within 48 h, and should be complete by 60 h. Sometime around or just after 72 h, the low is forecast to either merge with or be absorbed by a larger extratropical low pressure system over the North Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is based on the multi-model consensus, with a little extra weight given to the global models for the extratropical phase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 37.7N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 38.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 40.0N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 41.4N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 42.4N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 43.1N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1800Z 43.1N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
