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| #1012293 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 14.Aug.2020) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 There has not been much change with Kyle during the past several hours. The tropical storm continues to feel the influence of strong westerly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection. Despite the system`s poor appearance, a ship recently reported winds around 40 kt about 70 n mi southeast of the center. Based on that data and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt. The tropical storm is moving fairly quickly toward the east-northeast away from the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 065/14 kt. A slightly faster east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected during the next few days as the storm becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track models are in relatively good agreement, and this forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. The ongoing westerly shear is only expected to get stronger with time, therefore, significant intensification is not expected. However, the global models suggest that a little strengthening is likely during the next day or two while Kyle moves along the northern wall of the Gulf Stream current and interacts with an upper-level trough. Kyle is forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours when it is expected to be north of the Gulf Stream over cool waters and in a drier environment. The extratropical system should slowly decay until it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low in a little more than 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 38.3N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 39.3N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 40.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 42.0N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 43.1N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 17/1200Z 43.6N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0000Z 43.5N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
