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| #1012322 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 15.Aug.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Josephine continues to produce disorganized bursts of deep convection to the north and northeast of the estimated center, with little evidence of any banding features. In spite of the shear, the storm is still producing high-level outflow into the strong upper-level winds. The current intensity estimate of 40 kt is based on continuity from the previous scatterometer-based observations, and an ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm later this morning, and this should provide a good intensity estimate. Since vertical shear associated with a large upper-level trough over the western Atlantic is forecast to become quite strong over the next few days, a weakening trend is likely to commence in a day or so. The official forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction. It is also possible that the system will degenerate into an open wave within the next couple of days, as shown by the global models. It is difficult to locate the center at this time, but it is believed to be situated near the southwest edge of the main area of deep convection. This leads to a somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate of 300/13 kt. Josephine or its remnants are likely to continue to move west-northwestward to the south and southwest of a subtropical high pressure area, and then to turn northwest, north, and north-northeast along the periphery of the high. The official track forecast remains close to the NOAA corrected model consensus prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.9N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 19.6N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 20.7N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 22.0N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 23.4N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 24.9N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 26.5N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 29.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z 33.0N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch |
