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| #1012324 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 15.Aug.2020) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 The low-level center of Kyle continues to be exposed to the west of the deep convection, as strong westerly shear prevails. Although the satellite appearance is not that impressive, the circulation is well intact as indicated by a recent ASCAT overpass that reveals that the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Kyle is currently moving east-northeast at 18 kt, and away from the U.S. coast. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, with a turn to the east and an increase in forward speed thereafter as the system remains embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance. Only slight strengthening is expected over the next 24 h as the cyclone crosses the warm Gulf Stream waters and interacts with an upper-level trough, while battling increasing westerly shear. The forecast track takes Kyle over much cooler waters starting in about 24 h, and by that time, the system is expected to begin interacting with a frontal boundary to its north. This should initiate an extratropical transition that is expected to be complete by 36 h. It should be noted that both the FSU GFS-based phase space forecast and SHIPS guidance suggest that this transition could be completed sooner than indicated. After transition, the extratropical system should slowly decay until it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low in a little more than 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 38.7N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 39.7N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 41.0N 60.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 42.1N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0600Z 42.8N 52.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 17/1800Z 43.2N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0600Z 42.9N 40.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
