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| #1012357 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 15.Aug.2020) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 The exposed center of Kyle has become elongated this morning. Deep convection remains limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, a consequence of strong upper-level westerly winds. Despite the shear, there are indications that Kyle`s winds have increased. A ship (KABP) recently reported 50 kt winds just to the south of Kyle`s center. Although the observation was elevated, it still supports increasing the intensity to 45 kt. Kyle will continue to move quickly east-northeastward away from the coast of the U.S. and well south of the Canadian Maritimes today. The tropical storm is being steered by a mid- to upper-level trough and will likely continue on its general heading and speed for the day or so, followed by a turn toward due east by early Monday. The tropical storm has remained over the Gulf Stream thus far, which is likely helping it to maintain its tropical structure in the face of an otherwise hostile upper-air environment. Some additional strengthening is possible today or early Sunday before Kyle becomes post-tropical. The exact timing of that transition is still somewhat uncertain, but it is clear that Kyle will become an extratropical cyclone by early next week. After becoming post-tropical, gradual weakening is anticipated until the system becomes poorly-defined and is absorbed by a larger extratropical low by the middle of the week, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 39.0N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 39.8N 62.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 40.8N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 41.7N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1200Z 42.2N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 18/0000Z 42.5N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
