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| #1012397 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 15.Aug.2020) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 500 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Kyle has taken on a decidedly less tropical appearance. Its circulation has become very elongated and the nearest deep convection is displaced 100 n mi to the east of the surface center. If current trends continue, Kyle could become post-tropical later tonight. The cyclone is still moving over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream so redevelopment of convection near the center is not out of the question just yet and NHC will continue advisories for the moment. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on an earlier ship report, but late-arriving scatterometer data from this morning indicated that this could be a little generous. Whether it is tropical or post-tropical, Kyle is forecast to continue moving quickly east-northeastward to eastward for the next day or two until it is absorbed into a larger extratropical low. Although Kyle has another 12 to 24 hours of warm waters along its forecast track, it looks unlikely that it will be able to take advantage of it due to otherwise hostile conditions. Slight fluctuations in strength are still possible during the next day or two, but no further intensification is explicitly forecast and gradual weakening should begin by late Sunday. Aside from the slight adjustment to show no further strengthening overnight, no substantial changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecast, which are based on the multi-model consensus aids TVCA and IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 39.4N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 40.1N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/1800Z 40.8N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/0600Z 41.3N 51.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
