|#1013662 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 24.Aug.2020)|
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020
...CENTER OF LAURA PASSING NEAR CAYO LARGO CUBA....
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM S OF CAYO LARGO
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Ciego De Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana,
Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for
portions of the U.S. northwest Gulf coast area by this evening.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 81.6 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should
continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Laura will move over the Caribbean Sea just offshore of the
southern coast of Cuba this afternoon, cross western Cuba this
evening, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight.
Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern
Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and approach the
northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but
strengthening is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of
Mexico. Laura is foreast to become a hurricane on Tuesday, with
additional strengthening forecast on Wednesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily to the northeast and east of the center. An elevated
observing site at Sand Key located south of Key West, Florida, has
recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (67 km/h). A wind gust of
47 mph (76 km/h) has been observed at Santa Clara, Cuba, within the
past few hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance
aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through today:
Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum
amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
and the potential for mudslides.
From Wednesday afternoon into Friday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area
in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas this
afternoon and tonight.
SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells
are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of
Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday
and Tuesday night. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible later today into
tonight across the Florida Keys.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.