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| #101444 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 31.Jul.2006) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006 REPORTS FROM FRENCH BUOY 41100 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT THERE WAS A WEAK CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z CONFIRMED THAT THE CIRCULATION EXISTED BUT ALSO INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION WAS VERY SMALL. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS...DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR RESULTING PRIMARILY FROM STRONG EASTERLIES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS COMPLICATED...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE UPPER-LOW JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE FUTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. SOME GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE UKMET...SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP A STRONG WESTERLY SHEARING FLOW IN PLACE IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. OTHER GLOBAL MODELS RELAX THIS FLOW...BUT IT MAY NOT MATTER MUCH...AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS. THE GFDL MODEL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM...AS DO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A VERY SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND...BUT PERHAPS THIS MODEL CANNOT APPRECIATE JUST HOW FRAGILE A SYSTEM THE DEPRESSION IS RIGHT NOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MAY BE SHORT LIVED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. THE DOMINANT STEERING IS EXPECTED TO BE PROVIDED BY THE MID- TO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 16.6N 59.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 17.4N 61.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 18.3N 63.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 19.2N 65.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 20.1N 67.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 21.5N 71.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
