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| #1014897 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 01.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Omar is battling strong northwesterly shear, as any burst of convection that tries to develop near the center is quickly pushed off well to the southeast of the cyclone`s exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt based on a combination of the latest Dvorak CI values from UW-CIMSS, SAB and TAFB, as as well as data from a recent ASCAT overpass showing similar winds compared to earlier today. These intermittent bursts of convection should sustain Omar as a tropical storm at least through early Wednesday. However, the shear is expected to get even stronger by late Wednesday, which should cause a weakening trend to begin around that time. By Thursday night, if not sooner, any organized deep convection is expected to have diminished, and Omar is forecast to become a remnant low. An approaching frontal system should absorb what is left of the remnants a couple of days later. The latest NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is in agreement with the various intensity aids. Omar continues to move east-northeast, now at 12 kt. The steering pattern is straightforward over the next few days, as the cyclone will be steered east-northeast then eastward around the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Later on in the forecast period, once Omar has become a remnant low, a turn to the northeast is expected ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 35.8N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 36.4N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 37.0N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 37.2N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 37.0N 60.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1200Z 36.9N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 37.4N 56.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 40.0N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
