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| #101514 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 01.Aug.2006) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006 BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SHOW SOME FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL RAIN BANDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. CHRIS IS IN A RATHER ANTICYCLONIC LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH SEA LEVEL PRESSURES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN FACT...THE 850 MB ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY IS A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE 12Z SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR CHRIS. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS INHIBITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHRIS COULD BECOME FAVORABLY SITUATED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONSENSUS...ICON. IT SHOULD NOTED THAT THE GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE CHRIS WITHIN 5 DAYS. EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED. HOWEVER THE ADVISORY LOCATION IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GUADELOUPE RADAR OBSERVATIONS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9. CHRIS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL LOW...IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE A RIDGE IS MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. AIR FORCE RECON ARE SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN 1800 UTC FIX ON CHRIS. WE EXPECT THE AIRCRAFT DATA TO PROVIDE US WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOCATION...STRENGTH...AND STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.3N 60.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 17.9N 61.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.8N 64.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.7N 66.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.4N 68.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 21.7N 72.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 75.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 24.0N 78.5W 50 KT |
