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| #1015606 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 07.Sep.2020) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 Recent visible imagery shows that Paulette`s circulation has become better defined since this morning. There has also been some evidence of increased banding, however the tropical storm remains sheared, with deep convection occuring primarily in its northeast quadrant. Recent satellite-based intensity estimates range from just below to just above the 35-kt intensity estimate. The NHC forecast still calls for modest strengthening over the next day or two, and this seems like a good bet given the recent observed improvement of Paulette`s organization and structure. Moderate shear and some surrounding dry air appear to be inhibiting factors for substantial intensification, though the HWRF is a notable outlier that forecasts Paulette to become a hurricane in about 48 h. No major changes to the official intensity forecast were required at this time, and the NHC forecast is between the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Paulette appears to have moved slowly toward the northwest during the past several hours. The guidance spread has increased a little, though the models all have the same general idea. For the next 12 to 24 hours, Paulette will be embedded in an area of weak steering flow, though reformations of the center closer to the convection could result in a northwest to north-northwestward motion. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the western and central North Atlantic in a day or two and this should cause Paulette to turn back toward the west. The NHC forecast is slightly north of the previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 17.5N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 17.9N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 18.8N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 19.6N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 20.8N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 21.1N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 21.8N 53.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 24.0N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
