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| #1015882 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 09.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Although the cloud pattern of Rene has changed little in overall organization since earlier today, there are some indications that the easterly shear over the storm has diminished somewhat. Cirrus cloud motions show that upper-level outflow is slightly more evident over the eastern portion of the circulation, but it remains limited over that region. The current intensity estimate remains 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Vertical shear is predicted to be modest over Rene during the next couple of days, and this should allow for some strengthening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus and continues to show the system becoming a hurricane, albeit briefly. After day 3, the western portion of a large upper-level trough over the eastern Atlantic is likely to impart increased shear, which should lead to weakening. Conventional satellite and microwave fixes show a continued west-northwestward motion at about 285/11 kt. Rene is currently located on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 40W-45W longitude should induce a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest in 3-5 days. By the end of the forecast period, Rene`s forward progress begins to be blocked by building mid-level heights to its north and northwest, which should cause the cyclone`s forward motion to slow down significantly. The official track forecast has been adjusted farther to the left of the previous one, to be closer to the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 18.0N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.4N 34.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.9N 36.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 19.5N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 20.5N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 21.7N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 26.9N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 28.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
