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| #1015914 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 09.Sep.2020) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Paulette remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center southwest of a large area of deep convection. Recent scatterometer data showed peak winds of 45-50 kt, so 50 kt is used as the initial wind speed, which happens to be quite similar to a blend of the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates. Paulette should begin to weaken tomorrow and continue on a downward trend for 2-3 days as strong shear impacts the cyclone. No change has been made to the forecast through Saturday. Thereafter, the storm is likely to move into a lower-shear environment on the northeastern side of a mid/upper-level low, with SSTs rising to about 29C. There is better agreement among the models tonight that Paulette will survive the shear and be able to take advantage of that favorable environment. In fact, almost all of the most reliable guidance, save LGEM/SHIPS, show the storm becoming a hurricane by 120 hours, and the global models are trending in that direction. The new NHC forecast is raised from the previous one, near the model consensus, but isn`t quite as high as the regional hurricane models. The storm is moving at about the same motion as before (295/9 kt). Paulette should turn westward tomorrow as it weakens and encounters stronger low/mid-level ridging. A weakness in the ridge develops by the weekend due to the aforementioned mid/upper-level low, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn and move faster toward the northwest. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, lying on the western side of the guidance after placing heavier weight on the global models and corrected-consensus aids than on the regional hurricane guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 20.9N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 21.3N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 21.4N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 21.9N 53.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 22.8N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 24.1N 55.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 25.8N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 29.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 31.0N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
