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| #1015944 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 10.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 Several recent microwave overpasses indicate that Rene continues to be affected by easterly shear, with the low-level center located near the eastern edge of the ongoing bursting convection. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range and have changed little since the last advisory. Based on that, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. There is no change in the overall track forecast philosophy. Rene should move generally west-northwestward for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest into a weakness in the subtropical ridge partly caused by Tropical Storm Paulette. Late in the forecast period, the track forecast becomes more problematic due to uncertainties in how much ridging will build north of Rene and how close it will be to the larger Paulette. The track guidance during this time shows increasing spread and some westward shift from the previous advisory. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 h, then it lies to the left of the previous track at 96 and 120 h. However, at these times, it lies to the right of the various consensus models. The shear should gradually diminish during the next 48-60 h, and this should allow Rene to strengthen to or near hurricane strength. After that time, strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to cause gradual weakening despite the cyclone moving over increasing sea surface temperatures. The new official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. It lies near the various intensity consensus models through 72 h, but is weaker than those models at 96 and 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.2N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 18.6N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 19.1N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 19.8N 40.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 21.0N 42.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 22.4N 44.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 24.1N 45.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 28.6N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
