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| #1015977 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 10.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 Vertical shear appears to have lessened somewhat over Rene, with the estimated center more embedded within the convective cloud mass. The storm has also developed a better defined anticyclonic outflow pattern. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, and that will be used for the advisory intensity. Since the vertical shear is not expected to be strong for the next 48 hours or so, gradual strengthening is anticipated during that time, and Rene is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday. This is in reasonable agreement with the latest intensity model consensus, IVCN. In the latter half of the forecast period, increased westerly shear over the tropical cyclone is expected, which should lead to weakening. Rene continues on a west-northwestward track, and is moving at about 285/10 kt. The tropical cyclone is currently located on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. Over the next few days, Rene should move around the western periphery of this ridge and turn from a west-northwestward to a north-northwestward heading. Around the end of the forecast period, a high building to the northwest of the cyclone will likely cause a significant slowing of the forward speed. The official track forecast is a little left of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest model consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.6N 35.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.0N 37.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 19.6N 39.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 20.4N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 21.7N 43.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 23.1N 45.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 24.7N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 27.6N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 29.2N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
