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| #1016493 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 13.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Rene continues to produce occasional small bursts of deep convection, most recently to the north of its surface center. Both the TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications indicated that convection at 18Z was insufficient to classify the system, an indication that the few pop up thunderstorms are not sufficiently organized to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. That said, convection has increased a little since that time and there is a possibility that deep convection could increase further this evening. While Rene is still a tropical depression for the moment, if its convection does not persist, it could become a remnant low as soon as tonight. Only very small changes were made to the NHC track and intensity forecasts. Rene`s forward speed has continued to slow down since this morning. The shallow cyclone should make a westward and then southwestward turn during the next day or two, steered by a building low-level ridge to the north. Regardless of its exact status, Rene will probably continue to produce only a few small disorganized bursts of convection for the next few days while its circulation gradually spins down. Surrounding dry air and large-scale subsidence will likely prevent the redevelopment of more signifcant shower or thunderstorm activity. Most of the dynamical guidance indicates that Rene will open into a trough of low pressure within about 72 h, if not sooner and the NHC forecast shows likewise. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 27.3N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 27.4N 48.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0600Z 26.9N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 26.3N 50.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 25.7N 52.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
