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| #1016539 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 13.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 The depression continues to march west-northwestward with little change in its structure so far. Scatterometer data near 00Z revealed that the system is still elongated southwest to northeast with maximum winds near 30 kt. Convection has become a little more concentrated to the southwest of the depression`s center during the past few hours, so perhaps this is a sign that it will start getting organized soon. As long as the depression remains disorganized, only minimal strengthening is likely. However, once the system comes together, all indications are that it will strengthen, perhaps significantly so. The cyclone still has several days to strengthen within a low-shear/high-SST environment, and even the global models explicitly forecast the system to become a hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged and still brings the depression to major hurricane strength by the middle of the week. Some of the dynamical hurricane models indicate it could strengthen faster than that, so this forecast could wind up being conservative. The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward. A large mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic should keep the cyclone on this general heading for the next couple of days. After that, the ridge is forecast to move north and east, and the strengthening cyclone should turn toward the northwest in response. While the exact details vary from model to model, all of the dynamical track guidance supports this general scenario. The NHC forecast is based heavily on the model consensus and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 13.0N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 13.5N 41.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 13.9N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 15.0N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 48.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 17.2N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 20.0N 52.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
