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| #1016591 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 14.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Earlier ASCAT data indciated peak winds of 33 kt in the northwestern quadrant of the depression. Since then, convection has increased and so have the various satellite intensity estimates. The initial intensity is increased to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data, and satellite estimates of T3.5/35 kt from TAFB and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS SATCON. This makes Tropical Storm Teddy the earliest 19th named storm, besting the unnamed tropical storm on October 4, 2005. The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic should keep Teddy moving west-northwestward for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the ridge is expected to shift northward and eastward, and the strengthening cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward around the western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track guidance is general agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new official forecast track is similar to the previous one and lies down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the consensus model tracks. Teddy will have several days to strengthen over very warm ocean temperatures and within a light vertical wind shear regime. The only hindrance to intensification will be intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air that will briefly disrupt the inner-core convective structure. The NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged and brings Teddy major hurricane strength by the middle of the week. Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can`t bear to make that forecast at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 13.4N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 13.8N 42.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 14.3N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 15.0N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 16.9N 49.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 18.3N 50.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 21.0N 53.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 23.9N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart |
