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| #1016659 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 14.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 A timely 1156 UTC ASCAT-A pass was very helpful in locating the center of Teddy, which was farther south and west than previously estimated. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized, with the center located near the northern edge of a curved convective band. Based on the ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and SAB, the intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/12. Despite the adjustment to the center position, the overall track forecast reasoning has not changed. Teddy will be steered by a deep-layer ridge located over the central Atlantic, which should result in a west-northwestward motion resuming by tonight. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward with time, and Teddy is forecast to turn more northwestward in a couple of days around the western edge of the ridge. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted about a degree to the left of the previous NHC prediction, largely due to the adjustment in the initial position, and lies near the consensus aids and the middle of the guidance envelope. Teddy will be moving through a favorable environment for intensification for the next several days, with SSTs increasing along the forecast track and shear remaining relatively low. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, showing Teddy becoming a hurricane in 36 hours and reaching major hurricane strength in 4 to 5 days. This forecast is close to IVCN through the first 48 hours and then trends toward the higher HCCA guidance after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 12.8N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 13.2N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 13.9N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 14.7N 48.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 15.7N 49.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 16.9N 51.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 18.3N 52.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 21.0N 54.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 24.0N 57.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan |
