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| #1016720 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 14.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Teddy is strengthening this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows a growing convective band south and west of the center and a CDO feature developing over the estimated low-level center position. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB. The environment along Teddy`s forecast track features increasing SSTs and low shear for the next several days, and with the improved convective structure of the cyclone, steady strengthening is forecast. The NHC intensity prediction has been increased from the previous advisory, and shows a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours, which is supported by the SHIPS model and some of the RII indices. Beyond that time, Teddy is forecast to reach major hurricane intensity in about 3 days. The new NHC forecast is near HCCA through the forecast period. Microwave and geostationary satellite fixes suggest an initial motion of 275/12. The track forecast reasoning is similar to that of the previous advisory. Teddy will initially be steered westward and then west-northwestward by a deep-layer ridge located over the central Atlantic. As the ridge shifts eastward through the forecast period, Teddy is forecast to turn more northwestward as it moves around the western edge of the ridge. There is a fair amount of across track spread in the guidance, with the ECMWF on the right and the GFS and HWRF on the left. Overall the guidance envelope has shifted to the left since this morning. The new NHC track has been adjusted in that direction, and lies near or a little to the right of the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 13.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 13.6N 45.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 14.5N 47.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.4N 49.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 16.6N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 17.9N 52.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 19.3N 53.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 22.0N 56.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 24.5N 58.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan |
