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| #1016722 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 14.Sep.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 800 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 Vicky is severely sheared by strong upper-level westerly winds. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt based on earlier ASCAT data, but it is entirely possible the cyclone has weakened since this morning and all recent intensity estimates are lower. The shear is the main factor in Vicky`s forecast; it is expected to increase substantially (up to 60 kt in 24 h in GFS-SHIPS diagnostics) and should cause the cyclone to weaken. The NHC forecast now shows Vicky becoming a remnant low in 36 hours, and it would not be surprising if it happens sooner than that given the very hostile environment. After Vicky loses all of its convection, the dynamical models suggest that it will take a couple more days for the remnant low to spin down and open into a trough. Vicky`s movement has been somewhat erratic since it formed, but a long-term motion estimate is 325/6 kt. A continued northwestward motion is forecast for the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by a turn toward the west as Vicky weakens and is increasingly steered by low-level easterly winds. The NHC track forecast is based on the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids and is practically on top of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 19.3N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 20.1N 30.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 21.2N 31.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 22.0N 33.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 22.5N 35.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 22.9N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 23.0N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z 23.1N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
