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| #1016824 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 15.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 The tropical storm appears to have gotten better organized overnight, with deeper convection near the center and an increase in banding features. The initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt, a little lower than the subjective Dvorak estimates alone would indicate since they have been running a little hot for this storm. While there are no signs of a true inner core yet, the shear is quite low at present, and Teddy should have several days in a low or moderate shear environment over warm waters to strengthen. Thus, the new forecast is raised from the previous one and is closest to a blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the NOAA corrected- consensus guidance. Teddy bears watching in the long range for category 4 strength, but regardless of the details, all of the guidance show it becoming a classical large and powerful September hurricane. The storm has turned west-northwestward tonight, or 295/10 kt. Teddy remains in a well-defined steering current for the next several days on the southwestern edge of the central Atlantic ridge, causing a west-northwest to northwest track through the end of the forecast. While the guidance is in very good agreement, there`s been a rightward shift of almost all the aids, perhaps due to more upper-level westerly flow than the last cycle. The NHC track forecast is shifted eastward but lies on the western side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 13.7N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 14.4N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.6N 48.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 23.5N 56.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 26.5N 59.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
