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| #1016938 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 15.Sep.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Vicky continues to be blasted by around 50 kt of westerly shear, with deep convection being continually removed from the center. Overall the coverage and intensity of the deep convection has decreased since this morning, and the initial intensity has been set to 40 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates (30-35 kt) and SATCON (45 kt). The high shear is expected to persist, and that in combination with marginal SSTs should result in weakening, and Vicky is expected to become a remnant low in around 36 hours, with dissipation expected in about 3 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to HCCA and the IVCN consensus aids. The initial motion estimate is a bit faster toward the west-northwest or 300/10. Vicky should continue west-northwestward for the next 12 to 24 hours and then turn westward in the low-level flow before dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, near the middle of the guidance envelope, and has been adjusted a bit slower toward the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 21.2N 32.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 21.6N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 22.1N 35.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 22.4N 37.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 22.4N 38.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 22.2N 40.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
