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| #1016999 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 15.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 At a glance, Teddy looks like a hurricane in conventional infrared satellite imagery. Two hooking convective bands are rotating around the center, and cold convective tops are becoming more symmetric within the circulation. Objective intensity estimates have still struggled to increase for some reason, but a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support increasing Teddy`s intensity to 60 kt. Overall, the environment looks generally conducive for strengthening. The main limiting factors would be moderate southwesterly shear in 2-3 days, paired with a drier environment with mid-level relative humidity dropping from 55-60 percent to about 40 percent in 3 days. The updated NHC intensity forecast has not been changed significantly from the previous prediction mainly to ensure continuity. Nearly all of the intensity models are below this forecast, and downward intensity adjustments could be required in later forecasts if Teddy doesn`t show sure signs of significant intensification. Teddy has turned toward the northwest and slowed down a bit with an initial motion of 305/8 kt. A mid-tropospheric high pressure area is expected to be nearly stationary over the central Atlantic for the entire forecast period, which is likely to keep Teddy on a constant northwestward heading with only small fluctuations in forward speed. If I was to look for any outlier among the tightly clustered track guidance, it would be the ECMWF, which is slightly off to the west of the main pack of models. The NHC track forecast is just a little to the west of the TVCA multi-model consensus aid in deference to the ECMWF, and it`s fairly close to the latest HCCA solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.0N 48.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.0N 49.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 50.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 18.8N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 20.2N 53.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 21.6N 54.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 23.0N 56.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 26.5N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |
