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| #1017170 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 16.Sep.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Hostile vertical shear of 50 to 60 kt has finally taken a toll on Vicky. A 1227 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed peak winds of 35 kt north of the center, and that is the basis for the advisory intensity. The strong shear is expected to continue while Vicky moves over marginal 26-27C SSTs, so additional weakening is forecast. Vicky should become a tropical depression in around 24 hours before weakening to a remnant low in about 2 days, with dissipation expected by day 3. However, the timing of when organized deep convection will finally cease is difficult to determine, so its is possible Vicky could weaken faster than indicated here or hang on a bit longer. The initial motion estimate is more westward, or 270/08. Vicky should continue moving westward for the next day or two before turning west-southwestward in the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is south of the previous one and is close to the new multi-model consensus aids. The ASCAT data were also used to modify the initial 34-kt wind radii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 21.5N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 21.6N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 21.7N 37.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 21.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 21.0N 41.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 20.5N 42.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
