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| #1017173 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 16.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Teddy`s overall appearance has changed little over the past several hours. Microwave and infrared satellite images depict a well-defined inner core with an eye evident in the microwave imagery. However, visible imagery reveals that the eye remains cloud filled. Over the past few hours, the coldest cloud tops and have become confined to the western portion of the circulation, which could be the early signs of the cyclone experiencing some westerly wind shear. The latest satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged from 6 h ago, and therefore the initial intensity will remain 85 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional strengthening over the next 18-24 h, and with the inner-core well defined, rapid intensification could resume shortly. By 36 h, increasing westerly wind shear and drier air should limit any further intensification, and possibly induce some weakening. Later on in the forecast period, Teddy could encounter some cooler waters due to upwelling caused by Paulette. This could also attribute to additional weakening. The latest NHC forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one, and is on the high end of the guidance. It should be noted that if the rapid intensification that has paused recently doe not resume soon, adjustments to the intensity forecast will be necessary. Teddy continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. This motion is forecast to continue for the next few days, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Late in the forecast period, the portion of the ridge north of Teddy is expected to erode as a mid-latitude trough digs across the northeastern United States. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn north-northwest and possibly north by day 5. The track guidance is tightly clustered through day 3, then the spread increases after that time, likely due to how the models are handling the approaching trough. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and is near the various multi-model track consensus aids. On the forecast track, Teddy could make a close to approach to Bermuda in about 5 days. However, based on average 5-day track and intensity errors, it is too soon to know what type of impacts the cyclone could have on the island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 16.5N 49.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 17.5N 50.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 19.0N 52.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 20.4N 53.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 21.9N 55.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 23.5N 56.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 25.1N 58.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 31.7N 64.1W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto |
