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| #1017247 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 16.Sep.2020) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 The center of Sally continued its slow trek inland across the far western Florida Panhandle early this afternoon, and it is now located over southeastern Alabama. The satellite and radar presentation of the storm has continued to degrade, and surface observations and Doppler radar data show that winds have continued to gradually decrease. The initial intensity has been reduced to 50 kt, and rapidly weakening should continue as the circulation moves farther inland. Sally is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight or early Thursday, and degenerate into a remnant low in 36-48 hours. The system is expected to be absorbed by a frontal boundary near the southeast U.S. coast on Friday. Sally is moving north-northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed of 6 kt. The cyclone should turn northeastward and move at a slightly faster forward speed as it become embedded within the southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies, and this general motion should continue until dissipation occurs. The dynamical models are tightly clustered and the NHC track is near the center of envelope. Although the winds and storm surge from Sally are expected to continue to subside this evening, heavy rainfall and flooding will continue to spread inland over southeastern Alabama, central Georgia, and western South Carolina over the next day or so. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, is unfolding along and just inland from west of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Significant and widespread flooding is expected across inland portions of Alabama, central Georgia and upstate South Carolina, and widespread flooding is possible across western/central North Carolina, and far southeast Virginia. 2. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the coastline of the western Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola Bay. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue this evening within portions of the Tropical Storm warning area in southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 31.2N 86.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 31.9N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1800Z 33.2N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0600Z 34.2N 81.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
