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| #1017258 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 16.Sep.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 There`s been little change in Vicky`s cloud pattern this afternoon. What`s left of the deep convection associated with Vicky is displaced well to the east of the center. Cirrus clouds produced by the outflow of Hurricane Teddy, located nearly 1000 miles to the west-southwest of Vicky, are obscuring the sheared surface circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory in deference to the earlier scatterometer pass and due to the fact that the cloud pattern has remained unchanged. The UW-CIMSS SAT-Wind/shear products and water vapor imagery reveal an interesting upper wind pattern consisting of an upper low just to the west of Vicky and a narrow upper-tropospheric ridge to the south of the cyclone. These upper-level features are temporarily creating a very diffluent pattern which appears to be offsetting the blistering westerly shear a bit. In any event, Vicky is still forecast to gradually lose strength and degenerate to a remnant low on Friday, which is in best agreement with the global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity aids. The initial motion estimate is more westward, or 270/08. Vicky should continue moving westward for the next day or two before turning west-southwestward in the low-level tradewind flow. The new NHC track forecast is south of the previous one and is close to the HCCA and TCVA multi-model consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 21.5N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 21.6N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 21.3N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 20.6N 40.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 19.8N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
