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| #10173 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 25.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004 SHORTWAVE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TUCKED IN FURTHER BENEATH A STRONG BANDING FEATURE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND A 2025Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WHICH REVEALED A NUMBER OF REASONABLE 45 KT VECTORS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MIRRORS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND BRINGS LISA UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 96 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 335/9. LISA IS MOVING WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS SPLIT INTO 2 CLUSTERS. THE GFS AND GFDL SHOW A RELATIVELY FAST MOTION SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER DAY 4 IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHILE THE NOGAPS...UKMET...FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE AND THE NAVY GFDN HAVE LISA MISS THE TROUGH AND THEN INDICATE A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 18.0N 46.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 19.1N 46.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 20.7N 47.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 22.5N 48.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 24.3N 49.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 50.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 29.5N 50.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 01/0000Z 31.5N 50.5W 65 KT |
