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| #1017379 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 17.Sep.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 Strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the outflow of Hurricane Teddy continues to rip across the circulation of Vicky. These very hostile winds aloft are causing Vicky to struggle with maintaining deep convection, which is quite sheared and limited to the northeastern quadrant. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 25 to 38 kt, and the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt. Since the shear is expected to remain strong, Vicky is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today, a remnant low by tonight, and dissipate entirely by the weekend. The weak storm is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. A turn to the west is expected later today, followed by a west-southwest motion after that until the cyclone dissipates in a couple of days. The track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 21.9N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 21.6N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 21.0N 39.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 20.2N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z 19.4N 43.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
