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| #1017730 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 19.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Helpful AMSR microwave imagery from near 4Z revealed that Wilfred consists of a small low embedded within a broader elongated area of low pressure. A skinny, ragged band of convection wraps around the western and southern portions of the tropical storm, but Wilfred is only producing a small amount of convection near its center. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are generally near 35 kt, and the intensity is held at that value. No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. Wilfred should continue to move generally west-northwestward for the next few days, steered by a subtropical ridge to the north. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible for the next day or two, but Wilfred should be on the overall decline by the end of the weekend due to increasing wind shear and an expected influx of dry, stable air. The dynamical guidance consensus is that Wilfred will open into a trough and dissipate in about 72 h, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. Both the NHC track and intensity forecasts are based on the multi-model consensus throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 13.1N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 13.8N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 14.8N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 15.8N 44.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 16.5N 46.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 16.8N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
