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| #1017733 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 19.Sep.2020) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...BETA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 92.5W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, TX to Cameron, LA, including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * East of High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 92.5 West. Beta is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected to begin late today, with a slow northwestward motion forecast to begin late Sunday and continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield, TX to High Island, TX including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft High Island, TX to Morgan City, LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, and Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast late Sunday. RAINFALL: There is an increasing risk of significant rainfall and flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coasts Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly near the Texas coast. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico later today, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
