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| #1017734 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 19.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Teddy`s satellite presentation has fluctuated through the early morning; most recently the eye has cooled and become poorly defined. GMI microwave imagery at 0350 UTC showed that Teddy was most of the way through an eyewall replacement cycle, and this is probably why its satellite appearance has degraded a little. AT 0600 UTC, a blend of objective and subjective intensity estimates still supported an intensity of 115 kt, but given recent trends noted in satellite imagery, the intensity is set at 110 kt for the advisory. Little change was made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, both of which remain near the model consensus throughout the forecast period. Teddy will likely turn northward by early Sunday as it approaches a frontal system over the western Atlantic. This should steer the hurricane east of Bermuda, though the hurricane`s large wind field means that the island will still likely experience some tropical storm conditions begining Sunday afternoon or evening and continuing well into Monday. Fluctuations in intensity are likely through this period, but these fluctuations will have no impact on the overall size of Teddy`s wind field, which is forecast to increase markedly, especially once it begins extratropical transition (ET). The ET process could begin as soon as Monday, and based on GFS and ECMWF model fields, it should be complete in a little more than 72 h. A rapid decrease in Teddy`s max winds is expected after it becomes post-tropical, but the cyclone`s wind field could actually expand further. The NHC forecast implies a due northward motion until the center of Teddy moves near Nova Scotia in about 4 days, but the cyclone`s interaction with a cut-off low and a building ridge to the east of the cyclone could deflect it a little to the left between 72 and 96 h. A turn toward the northeast is expected by the end of the forecast as Teddy interacts with another mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest. Teddy an extensive area of large waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See the Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday, Tropical Storm conditions are still likely for the island and its nearby waters beginning Sunday afternoon or evening. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the weekend. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 24.9N 58.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 26.3N 59.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 28.0N 61.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 29.5N 62.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 31.6N 61.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 35.2N 61.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 39.2N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 45.5N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/0600Z 51.5N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
