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| #1018275 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 21.Sep.2020) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 ...CENTER OF BETA NEARING THE TEXAS COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL AREA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 96.3W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM SW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Sabine Pass, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 96.3 West. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A slow north and northeast motion are expected on Tuesday, and a faster east-northeastward motion should begin Tuesday night and continue Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland overnight. Beta is forecast to remain near or just offshore the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday as Beta moves just inland along the Texas coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow observing site at Matagorda Bay, Texas, has reported sustained winds of 41 mph (67 km/h) with a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) this evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Lake Calcasieu, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area through Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur through Tuesday near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
