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| #101840 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:31 PM 02.Aug.2006) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006 CHRIS HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING...AS INDICATED BY A SERIES OF AIRCRAFT RECON FIXES ENDING AROUND 00Z...WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN...AND GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE RADAR IMAGERY EVEN SUGGESTS A MOTION A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST. FOR NOW I WILL CONSIDER THAT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT AS A WOBBLE AND ESTIMATE THE INITIAL MOTION TO BE WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL TO FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE GFDL...AND ITS SOUTHERN TRACK SOLUTION NO LONGER SEEMS SO MUCH OF AN OUTLIER. ALSO...OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...SEEMINGLY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE REMAINING MODELS...NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFDL. CHRIS HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY PRODUCING VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80C. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS DEPICTED A CIRCULATION NEAR 25000 FT IN ALTITUDE. THE LAST FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT AROUND 00Z LOCATED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER A LITTLE WEST OF THAT FEATURE...WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. IN ACCORDANCE WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE IT POSSIBLY INTERACTS WITH THE LANDMASSES OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. FOLLOWING THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...CHRIS WOULD PASS OVER LAND LONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IF IT LASTS THAT LONG. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 19.8N 64.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 20.1N 66.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 20.4N 68.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 20.8N 70.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 21.2N 72.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 22.0N 77.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 82.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 08/0000Z 23.5N 87.5W 60 KT |
