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| #101877 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 03.Aug.2006) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006 CHRIS IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED IN A HURRY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1010 MB AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED SO FAR IS ONLY 38 KNOTS. HOWEVER...ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS... AND THIS IS VERY GENEROUS. I WAS TEMPTED TO FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVEN DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A STEADY STATE CONSIDERING THAT THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF CHRIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. ACCORDING TO ALL GLOBAL MODELS...A STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...CHRIS...OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...VERY NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN FIVE DAYS. THE DILEMMA IS THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. IT COULD WEAKEN FURTHER AND DISSIPATE OR COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH. I AM IN FAVOR OF WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.3N 66.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 20.8N 70.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 21.2N 72.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 22.5N 79.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 23.0N 84.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 23.5N 89.0W 35 KT |
