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| #1019668 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 02.Oct.2020) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 85.3W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Five was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 85.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by Saturday morning, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
