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| #1019895 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 04.Oct.2020) TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE CUBA PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LA HABANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 76.6W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 76.6W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 76.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.1N 77.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.1N 85.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 87.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 90.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 28.6N 90.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 76.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
