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| #1020084 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 AM 06.Oct.2020) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 200 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT DELTA IS STILL INTENSIFYING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 80.6W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum * Rio Lagartos to Progresso A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 80.6 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected to start later today through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands this morning, and approach the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan Channel tonight. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico late Wednesday and Thursday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands later this morning. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area and possible in the watch area near the same time. RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with maximum rainfall as high as 10 inches possible, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through mid week. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Later this week and into the weekend, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southeastern United States. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |
